Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC

Michael Artis and Massimiliano Marcellino

Econometrics Journal, 2001, vol. 4, issue 1, S20-S36

Abstract: We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preference for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecast pooling.

Keywords: Fiscal forecasting; Forecast comparison; Loss function. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
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Related works:
Working Paper: Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD, and EC (1999)
Working Paper: Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC (1999)
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