Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC

Michael Artis and Massimiliano Marcellino

Economics Working Papers from European University Institute

Abstract: We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preferrence for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecat pooling.

Keywords: ECONOMIC MODELS; FORECASTS; DEFICIT (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E17 H62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 1999
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC (2001)
Working Paper: Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD, and EC (1999)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco99/22

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