Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD, and EC

Michael Artis and Massimiliano Marcellino

No 2206, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to DGP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e., of a preference for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecast pooling.

Keywords: fiscal forecasting; forecast encompassing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E17 H62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999-08
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC (2001)
Working Paper: Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC (1999)
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