Macro-econometric modelling for the Nigerian economy: A growth–poverty gap analysis
Olusegun Akanbi and
Charlotte B. Du Toit
Economic Modelling, 2011, vol. 28, issue 1, 335-350
This study develops comprehensive full-sector macro-econometric models for the Nigerian economy with the aim of explaining and providing a long-term solution for the persistent growth–poverty divergence experienced by the country. The models are applied to test the hypothesis of existing structural supply-side constraints versus demand-side constraints impeding the economic growth and development of the country. A review of the historical performance of the Nigerian economy reveals significant socio–economic constraints as the predominant impediments to high and sticky levels of poverty in the economy. Thus, a model which is suitable for policy analyses of the Nigerian economy needs to capture the long-run supply-side characteristics of the economy. A price block is incorporated to specify the price adjustment between the production or supply-side sector and real aggregate demand sector. The institutional characteristics with associated policy behaviour are incorporated through a public and monetary sector, whereas the interaction with the rest of the world is represented by a foreign sector, with specific attention being given to the oil sector. The models are estimated with time-series data from 1970 to 2006 using the Engle–Granger two-step co-integration technique, capturing both the long-run and short-run dynamic properties of the economy. The full-sector models are subjected to a series of policy scenarios to evaluate various options for government to improve the productive capacity of the economy, thereby achieving sustained accelerated growth and a reduction in poverty in the Nigerian economy.
Keywords: Macro-econometric modelling; Economic growth; Poverty; Nigeria (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 C53 C32 E20 P46 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
Journal Article: Macro-econometric modelling for the Nigerian economy: A growth-poverty gap analysis (2011)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:335-350
Access Statistics for this article
Economic Modelling is currently edited by S. Hall and P. Pauly
More articles in Economic Modelling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Nithya Sathishkumar ().