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Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition

María Gadea (), Ana Gómez-Loscos () and Danilo Leiva-Leon ()

Economic Modelling, 2019, vol. 80, issue C, 222-243

Abstract: This paper analyses changes in economic regional interlinkages in Europe over time and investigates the factors that could explain the dynamics of these changes. Our four main findings are the following: (i) we detect a significant surge in regional synchronisation after the Great Recession; (ii) we identify the regions most interrelated with the rest of Europe, namely, Ile de France, Inner London and Lombardia; (iii) we find that sectoral composition explains regional synchronisation in Europe, mainly after the Great Recession and (iv) we document that sectoral composition has important implications for aggregate economic fluctuations, in particular, that similarities in services-related sectors across regions explain a nonlinear relationship between sectoral composition and regional business cycle synchronisation. We also propose a new method to measure time-varying synchronisation in small samples that combines regime-switching models and dynamic model averaging.

Keywords: Business cycle; Sectoral composition; Regime-switching; Model averaging (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C31 C32 E32 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.11.009

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