Details about Danilo Leiva-Leon

Access statistics for papers by Danilo Leiva-Leon.

Last updated 2025-02-01. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: ple733

Working Papers

2025

1. Parsing Out the Sources of Inflation
   Current Policy Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

2023

2. Underlying inflation and asymetric risks
   Working Papers, Banco de España
   Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2023)
3. When Credit Expansions Become Troublesome: The Story of Investor Sentiments
   VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage", Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association

2022

4. Housing prices in Spain: convergence or decoupling?
   Working Papers, Banco de España
   See also Journal Article Housing prices in Spain: convergence or decoupling?, SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer (2023) View citations (1) (2023)
5. Latin American Falls, Rebounds and Tail
   Working Papers, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE)
6. Latin American Falls, Rebounds and Tail Risks
   Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia

2021

7. Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation Forecasts?
   Working Papers, Banco de España View citations (10)
   Also in Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank (2021) View citations (10)
   Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2021) View citations (9)
8. Endogenous time variation in vector autoregressions
   Working Papers, Banco de España View citations (2)
   Also in Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada (2020)
   See also Journal Article Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2023) View citations (3) (2023)
9. Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting
   Occasional Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (7)
10. Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
    Also in Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada (2020) View citations (1)
11. Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (6)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2021) View citations (6)
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University (2021) View citations (6)
    Working Papers, Banco de España (2021) View citations (6)
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics (2021) View citations (6)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2021)
    See also Journal Article Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2024) View citations (6) (2024)

2020

12. Exchange rate shocks and inflation comovement in the euro area
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (7)
    Also in Working Papers, Banco de España (2019) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Exchange Rate Shocks and Inflation Co-movement in the Euro Area, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2022) View citations (4) (2022)
13. Macro-financial interactions in a changing world
    Working Papers, Banco de España
14. Real-Time Weakness of the Global Economy: A First Assessment of the Coronavirus Crisis
    MNB Working Papers, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary) View citations (15)
    Also in Working Papers, Banco de España (2020) View citations (20)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2020) View citations (19)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (15)

2019

15. An application of dynamic factor models to nowcast regional economic activity in Spain
    Occasional Papers, Banco de España View citations (6)
16. Fluctuations in Global Macro Volatility
    ThE Papers, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada. View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, Banco de España (2019) View citations (1)
17. Mapping China’s time-varying house price landscape
    Working Papers, Banco de España View citations (2)
    Also in BOFIT Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) (2017)
    See also Journal Article Mapping China’s time-varying house price landscape, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier (2019) View citations (2) (2019)

2017

18. Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada
    Also in Working Papers, Banco de España (2017)
    See also Journal Article Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2020) View citations (4) (2020)
19. Measuring business cycles intra-synchronization in us: a regime-switching interdependence framework
    Working Papers, Banco de España View citations (27)
    See also Journal Article Measuring Business Cycles Intra-Synchronization in US: A Regime-switching Interdependence Framework, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford (2017) View citations (24) (2017)
20. Model averaging in markov-switching models: predicting national recessions with regional data
    Working Papers, Banco de España View citations (3)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2014) View citations (1)
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada (2015)
    See also Journal Article Model averaging in Markov-switching models: Predicting national recessions with regional data, Economics Letters, Elsevier (2017) View citations (5) (2017)
21. Monetary policy, stock market and sectoral comovement
    Working Papers, Banco de España
22. Monitoring the Spanish Economy through the Lenses of Structural Bayesian VARs
    Occasional Papers, Banco de España View citations (5)
23. The evolution of regional economic interlinkages in Europe
    Working Papers, Banco de España View citations (8)
24. The propagation of industrial business cycles
    Working Papers, Banco de España View citations (8)
    Also in Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada (2014) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article THE PROPAGATION OF INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS CYCLES, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (2019) View citations (7) (2019)

2016

25. Nowcasting Nominal GDP with the Credit-Card Augmented Divisia Monetary
    Studies in Applied Economics, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise View citations (30)
26. Nowcasting Nominal GDP with the Credit-Card Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates
    WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS, University of Kansas, Department of Economics View citations (27)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2016) View citations (26)
27. The Credit-Card-Services Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates
    WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS, University of Kansas, Department of Economics View citations (13)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2016) View citations (16)

2015

28. Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Non-Linear Approach
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, Banco de España (2015) View citations (1)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2015) View citations (1)
    See also Chapter Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Non-linear Approach, Advances in Econometrics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited (2016) View citations (1) (2016)
29. Dynamics of Global Business Cycles Interdependence
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence, Journal of International Economics, Elsevier (2016) View citations (44) (2016)

2014

30. A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (10)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2013) View citations (1)
31. Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break
    WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS, University of Kansas, Department of Economics View citations (1)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2014) View citations (3)
32. Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (6)

2013

33. Real vs. Nominal Cycles: A Multistate Markov-Switching Bi-Factor Approach
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Real vs. nominal cycles: a multistate Markov-switching bi-factor approach, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter (2014) View citations (18) (2014)

Journal Articles

2025

1. Sentiment About Business Debt as a Leading Economic Indicator
   Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2025, 25, (09)

2024

2. Inspecting cross-border macro-financial mechanisms
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2024, 145, (C) View citations (1)
3. Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions
   The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2024, 106, (2), 483-504 View citations (6)
   See also Working Paper Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions, NBER Working Papers (2021) View citations (6) (2021)

2023

4. De la energía al resto de los componentes: la generalización del fenómeno inflacionista
   Boletín Económico, 2023, (2023/T1)
5. Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions
   The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2023, 105, (1), 125-142 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper Endogenous time variation in vector autoregressions, Working Papers (2021) View citations (2) (2021)
6. Housing prices in Spain: convergence or decoupling?
   SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 2023, 14, (2), 165-187 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Housing prices in Spain: convergence or decoupling?, Working Papers (2022) (2022)
7. The spread of inflation from energy to other components
   Economic Bulletin, 2023, (2023/Q1)

2022

8. Exchange Rate Shocks and Inflation Co-movement in the Euro Area
   International Journal of Central Banking, 2022, 18, (1), 239-275 View citations (4)
   See also Working Paper Exchange rate shocks and inflation comovement in the euro area, Working Paper Series (2020) View citations (7) (2020)
9. Fluctuations in global output volatility
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2022, 120, (C) View citations (3)
10. Introducing the Credit Market Sentiment Index
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2022, 22, (33)
11. La respuesta de la inversión privada a un incremento de la inversión pública
    Boletín Económico, 2022, (2/2022)
12. The response of private investment to an increase in public investment
    Economic Bulletin, 2022, (2/2022)

2020

13. Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2020, 38, (2), 285-302 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter, Staff Working Papers (2017) (2017)

2019

14. Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition
    Economic Modelling, 2019, 80, (C), 222-243 View citations (4)
15. Mapping China’s time-varying house price landscape
    Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2019, 78, (C) View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper Mapping China’s time-varying house price landscape, Working Papers (2019) View citations (2) (2019)
16. Predicción en tiempo real del PIB regional: aspectos estadísticos y un modelo de previsión
    Boletín Económico, 2019, (JUN)
17. Real-time regional GDP forecasting: statistical aspects and a forecasting model
    Economic Bulletin, 2019, (JUN)
18. THE PROPAGATION OF INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS CYCLES
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2019, 23, (1), 144-177 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper The propagation of industrial business cycles, Working Papers (2017) View citations (8) (2017)

2018

19. La evolución reciente del tipo de cambio del euro y su impacto sobre la inflación en la economía española
    Boletín Económico, 2018, (DIC)
20. Recent movements in the euro exchange rate and the impact on inflation in the Spanish economy
    Economic Bulletin, 2018, (DEC) View citations (2)

2017

21. Measuring Business Cycles Intra-Synchronization in US: A Regime-switching Interdependence Framework
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2017, 79, (4), 513-545 View citations (24)
    See also Working Paper Measuring business cycles intra-synchronization in us: a regime-switching interdependence framework, Working Papers (2017) View citations (27) (2017)
22. Model averaging in Markov-switching models: Predicting national recessions with regional data
    Economics Letters, 2017, 157, (C), 45-49 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper Model averaging in markov-switching models: predicting national recessions with regional data, Working Papers (2017) View citations (3) (2017)

2016

23. Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence
    Journal of International Economics, 2016, 102, (C), 110-127 View citations (44)
    See also Working Paper Dynamics of Global Business Cycles Interdependence, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2015) View citations (3) (2015)
24. Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP with structural breaks
    Journal of Econometrics, 2016, 191, (2), 312-324 View citations (16)

2014

25. Real vs. nominal cycles: a multistate Markov-switching bi-factor approach
    Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2014, 18, (5), 557-580 View citations (18)
    See also Working Paper Real vs. Nominal Cycles: A Multistate Markov-Switching Bi-Factor Approach, MPRA Paper (2013) View citations (7) (2013)

Chapters

2022

1. Heterogeneous Switching in FAVAR Models
   A chapter in Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, 2022, vol. 44B, pp 65-98

2016

2. Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Non-linear Approach
   A chapter in Dynamic Factor Models, 2016, vol. 35, pp 283-316 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Non-Linear Approach, Central Bank of Chile (2015) View citations (1) (2015)
3. U.S. Monetary Spillovers to Latin America: The Role of Long-term Interest Rates
   Chapter 09 in Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, 2016, vol. 24, pp 285-307 View citations (1)