Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions

Christiane Baumeister, Leiva-León, Danilo and Eric Sims
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Danilo Leiva-Leon ()

No 16317, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is considerable heterogeneity in the length, depth, and timing of business cycles across individual states. We assess the role of states in national recessions and propose an aggregate indicator that allows us to gauge the overall weakness of the U.S. economy. We also illustrate the usefulness of these state-level indices for quantifying the main forces contributing to the economic collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and for evaluating the effectiveness of federal economic policies like the Paycheck Protection Program.

Keywords: Local economic conditions; Government policies; Weekly indicators; State economies; Cross-state heterogeneity; Mixed-frequency dynamic factor model; Economic weakness index; Markov-switching; Recession probabilities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C55 E32 E66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-07
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Related works:
Journal Article: Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions (2024)
Working Paper: Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions (2021)
Working Paper: Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions (2021)
Working Paper: Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions (2021)
Working Paper: Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions (2021)
Working Paper: Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions (2021)
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