Trend/cycle decomposition of regime-switching processes

James Morley and Jeremy Piger

Journal of Econometrics, 2008, vol. 146, issue 2, 220-226

Abstract: We present a new approach to trend/cycle decomposition of time series that follow regime-switching processes. The proposed approach, which we label the "regime-dependent steady-state" (RDSS) decomposition, is motivated as the appropriate generalization of the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition [Beveridge, S., Nelson, C.R., 1981. A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle. Journal of Monetary Economics 7, 151-174] to the setting where the reduced-form dynamics of a given series can be captured by a regime-switching forecasting model. For processes in which the underlying trend component follows a random walk with possibly regime-switching drift, the RDSS decomposition is optimal in a minimum mean-squared-error sense and is more broadly applicable than directly employing an Unobserved Components model.

Keywords: Unobserved; components; Filtering; Nonlinear; Markov; switching; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:econom:v:146:y:2008:i:2:p:220-226

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