Details about Jeremy Piger

Access statistics for papers by Jeremy Piger.

Last updated 2023-12-06. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: ppi14

Working Papers

2021

1. Contagious Switching
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article Contagious switching, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2022) View citations (1) (2022)

2013

2. Nowcasting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points with Vector Quantization
   Working Papers, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics

2012

3. Comovement in GDP Trends and Cycles Among Trading Partners
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners, Journal of International Economics, Elsevier (2014) View citations (24) (2014)
4. Forecasting national recessions using state level data
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (4)
   Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2012) View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2015) View citations (15) (2015)
5. Reproducing Business Cycle Features: Are Nonlinear Dynamics a Proxy for Multivariate Information?
   Discussion Papers, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article Reproducing business cycle features: are nonlinear dynamics a proxy for multivariate information?, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter (2013) View citations (9) (2013)

2011

6. Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (96)
   See also Chapter Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment, World Scientific Book Chapters, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. (2019) View citations (3) (2019)
   Journal Article Determinants of foreign direct investment, Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association (2014) View citations (236) (2014)
7. Discordant City Employment Cycles
   ERSA conference papers, European Regional Science Association
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2010) View citations (2)
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2010) View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article Discordant city employment cycles, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier (2013) View citations (5) (2013)
8. Inflation in the G7: mind the gap(s)?
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article INFLATION IN THE G7: MIND THE GAP(S)?, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (2015) View citations (5) (2015)

2010

9. Employment and the business cycle
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
   Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2010)

2009

10. Reproducing Business Cycle Features: How Important Is Nonlinearity Versus Multivariate Information?
    Wesleyan Economics Working Papers, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics View citations (2)

2007

11. A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (15)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics (2006) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier (2008) View citations (33) (2008)
12. Identifying asymmetry in the language of the Beige Book: a mixed data sampling approach
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
13. The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach, Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier (2008) View citations (37) (2008)

2006

14. A Bayesian Approach to Counterfactual Analysis of Structural Change
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2006) View citations (2)
15. Beyond the numbers: an analysis of optimistic and pessimistic language in earnings press releases
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (8)
16. Inflation: do expectations trump the gap?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article Inflation: Do Expectations Trump the Gap?, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2008) View citations (9) (2008)

2005

17. A comparison of the real-time performance of business cycle dating methods
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association (2008) View citations (211) (2008)
18. A steady-state approach to trend/cycle decomposition of regime-switching processes
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
19. The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District, Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2005) (2005)
20. The dynamic relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. business cycles
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, University of Washington, Department of Economics (2003) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2007) View citations (8) (2007)
21. The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (15)
    See also Chapter The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features, Contributions to Economic Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited (2006) (2006)

2004

22. A Steady State Approach to Trend / Cycle Decomposition
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2004, Society for Computational Economics
23. Business cycle phases in U.S. states
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2005) View citations (129) (2005)
24. Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (31)
    See also Journal Article Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2008) View citations (129) (2008)
25. Explicit inflation objectives and macroeconomic outcomes
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (51)
26. Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (173)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2003, Society for Computational Economics (2003) View citations (69)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2003) View citations (127)

2003

27. Is the response of output to monetary policy asymmetric? evidence from a regime-switching coefficients model
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article Is the Response of Output to Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Regime-Switching Coefficients Model, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2005) View citations (173) (2005)
28. Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (29)
    See also Journal Article Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2005) View citations (101) (2005)
29. The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (9)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2001) View citations (31)
    See also Journal Article The Less-Volatile U.S. Economy: A Bayesian Investigation of Timing, Breadth, and Potential Explanations, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association (2004) View citations (109) (2004)

2002

30. Identifying business cycle turning points in real time
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Identifying business cycle turning points in real time, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2003) View citations (59) (2003)
31. Is Inflation Persistence Inherent in Industrial Economies?
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2002, Society for Computational Economics View citations (1)
32. The use and abuse of 'real-time' data in economic forecasting
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2000) View citations (3)
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2000) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2003) View citations (158) (2003)

2001

33. Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
    Also in Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers, Econometric Society (2000) View citations (14)
    Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington, Department of Economics at the University of Washington (2000)
    Working Papers, University of Washington, Department of Economics (2000) View citations (16)
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2000)
    See also Journal Article Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2002) View citations (46) (2002)
34. Markov regime switching and unit root tests
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (60)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2000) View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article Markov Regime Switching and Unit-Root Tests, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association (2001) View citations (75) (2001)
35. Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)

1999

36. Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Markov Regime-Switching
    Working Papers, University of Washington, Department of Economics View citations (4)
    Also in Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington, Department of Economics at the University of Washington (1999) View citations (1)

Journal Articles

2022

1. Contagious switching
   Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2022, 37, (2), 415-432 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Contagious Switching, Working Papers (2021) View citations (2) (2021)

2021

2. AN N-STATE ENDOGENOUS MARKOV-SWITCHING MODEL WITH APPLICATIONS IN MACROECONOMICS AND FINANCE
   Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2021, 25, (8), 1937-1965 View citations (1)
3. Structural Breaks in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach
   Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2021, 53, (8), 1999-2036 View citations (5)

2017

4. Identifying business cycle turning points in real time with vector quantization
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33, (1), 174-184 View citations (26)

2015

5. Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data
   Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2015, 47, (5), 847-866 View citations (15)
   See also Working Paper Forecasting national recessions using state level data, Working Papers (2012) View citations (4) (2012)
6. INFLATION IN THE G7: MIND THE GAP(S)?
   Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2015, 19, (4), 883-912 View citations (5)
   See also Working Paper Inflation in the G7: mind the gap(s)?, Working Papers (2011) View citations (2) (2011)
7. INTRODUCTION TO “SPECIAL ISSUE ON THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS CYCLES, FINANCIAL MARKETS, AND INFLATION: ESSAYS IN HONOR OF CHARLES NELSON”
   Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2015, 19, (4), 723-727 View citations (2)

2014

8. Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners
   Journal of International Economics, 2014, 94, (2), 239-247 View citations (24)
   See also Working Paper Comovement in GDP Trends and Cycles Among Trading Partners, NBER Working Papers (2012) View citations (1) (2012)
9. Determinants of foreign direct investment
   Canadian Journal of Economics, 2014, 47, (3), 775-812 View citations (236)
   Also in Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 2014, 47, (3), 775-812 (2014) View citations (223)
   See also Chapter Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment, World Scientific Book Chapters, 2019, 3-54 (2019) View citations (3) (2019)
   Working Paper Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment, NBER Working Papers (2011) View citations (96) (2011)

2013

10. Discordant city employment cycles
    Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2013, 43, (2), 367-384 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper Discordant City Employment Cycles, ERSA conference papers (2011) (2011)
11. Reproducing business cycle features: are nonlinear dynamics a proxy for multivariate information?
    Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2013, 17, (5), 483-498 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper Reproducing Business Cycle Features: Are Nonlinear Dynamics a Proxy for Multivariate Information?, Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (2) (2012)

2012

12. Beyond the Numbers: Measuring the Information Content of Earnings Press Release Language
    Contemporary Accounting Research, 2012, 29, (3), 845-868 View citations (171)
13. The Asymmetric Business Cycle
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012, 94, (1), 208-221 View citations (155)

2009

14. Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling Approach
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2009, 41, (1), 35-55 View citations (13)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2009, 41, (1), 35-55 (2009) View citations (39)

2008

15. A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49 View citations (211)
    See also Working Paper A comparison of the real-time performance of business cycle dating methods, Working Papers (2005) View citations (14) (2005)
16. A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation
    Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2008, 38, (6), 578-589 View citations (33)
    See also Working Paper A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation, Working Papers (2007) View citations (15) (2007)
17. Bayesian counterfactual analysis of the sources of the great moderation
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2008, 23, (2), 173-191 View citations (14)
18. Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching
    Journal of Econometrics, 2008, 143, (2), 263-273 View citations (129)
    See also Working Paper Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching, Working Papers (2004) View citations (31) (2004)
19. Inflation: Do Expectations Trump the Gap?
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2008, 4, (4), 85-116 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper Inflation: do expectations trump the gap?, Working Papers (2006) View citations (12) (2006)
20. The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach
    Journal of Urban Economics, 2008, 64, (3), 538-550 View citations (37)
    See also Working Paper The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach, Working Papers (2007) View citations (3) (2007)
21. Trend/cycle decomposition of regime-switching processes
    Journal of Econometrics, 2008, 146, (2), 220-226 View citations (19)

2007

22. The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39, (1), 187-204 View citations (8)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39, (1), 187-204 (2007) View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper The dynamic relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. business cycles, Working Papers (2005) View citations (1) (2005)

2006

23. Is all that talk just noise?
    Monetary Trends, 2006, (Aug)

2005

24. Are inflation expectations rising from the ashes?
    Monetary Trends, 2005, (Nov)
25. Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2005, 87, (4), 604-616 View citations (129)
    See also Working Paper Business cycle phases in U.S. states, Working Papers (2004) View citations (4) (2004)
26. International perspectives on the \"Great Moderation\"
    International Economic Trends, 2005, (Aug)
27. Is the Response of Output to Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Regime-Switching Coefficients Model
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005, 37, (5), 865-86 View citations (173)
    See also Working Paper Is the response of output to monetary policy asymmetric? evidence from a regime-switching coefficients model, Working Papers (2003) View citations (14) (2003)
28. Is the business cycle still an inventory cycle?
    National Economic Trends, 2005, (Jan)
29. Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2005, 20, (2), 291-309 View citations (101)
    Also in Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2005, 20, (2), 291-309 (2005) View citations (22)
    See also Working Paper Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions, Working Papers (2003) View citations (29) (2003)
30. The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District
    Regional Economic Development, 2005, (Nov), 3-16
    See also Working Paper The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District, Working Papers (2005) (2005)

2004

31. Does inflation targeting make a difference?
    Monetary Trends, 2004, (Apr) View citations (1)
32. The Less-Volatile U.S. Economy: A Bayesian Investigation of Timing, Breadth, and Potential Explanations
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2004, 22, (1), 80-93 View citations (109)
    See also Working Paper The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations, Working Papers (2003) View citations (9) (2003)
33. The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting
    Review, 2004, 86, (Jul), 51-80 View citations (235)

2003

34. A national recession
    National Economic Trends, 2003, (Apr)
35. Consumer confidence surveys: do they boost forecasters' confidence?
    The Regional Economist, 2003, (Apr), 10-11
36. Identifying business cycle turning points in real time
    Review, 2003, 85, (Mar), 47-61 View citations (59)
    See also Working Paper Identifying business cycle turning points in real time, FRB Atlanta Working Paper (2002) View citations (5) (2002)
37. Pushing on a string
    Monetary Trends, 2003, (Mar) View citations (1)
38. The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2003, 85, (3), 618-628 View citations (158)
    See also Working Paper The use and abuse of 'real-time' data in economic forecasting, Working Papers (2002) View citations (1) (2002)

2002

39. Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2002, 49, (6), 1189-1211 View citations (46)
    See also Working Paper Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations, Working Papers (2001) View citations (2) (2001)
40. Getting real about monetary policy
    Monetary Trends, 2002, (Jan)
41. Was the recent economic downturn a recession?
    National Economic Trends, 2002, (Aug)

2001

42. Markov Regime Switching and Unit-Root Tests
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2001, 19, (4), 404-15 View citations (75)
    See also Working Paper Markov regime switching and unit root tests, Working Papers (2001) View citations (60) (2001)

Chapters

2019

1. Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment
   Chapter 1 in Foreign Direct Investment, 2019, pp 3-54 View citations (3)
   See also Journal Article Determinants of foreign direct investment, Canadian Economics Association (2014) View citations (236) (2014)
   Working Paper Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2011) View citations (96) (2011)

2006

2. The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features
   A chapter in Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, 2006, pp 75-95
   See also Working Paper The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2005) View citations (15) (2005)

Editor

1. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics
   De Gruyter