Large Bayesian VARMAs

Joshua Chan, Eric Eisenstat and Gary Koop

Journal of Econometrics, 2016, vol. 192, issue 2, 374-390

Abstract: Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) models have many theoretical properties which should make them popular among empirical macroeconomists. However, they are rarely used in practice due to over-parameterization concerns, difficulties in ensuring identification and computational challenges. With the growing interest in multivariate time series models of high dimension, these problems with VARMAs become even more acute, accounting for the dominance of VARs in this field. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach for inference in VARMAs which surmounts these problems. It jointly ensures identification and parsimony in the context of an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We use this approach in a macroeconomic application involving up to twelve dependent variables. We find our algorithm to work successfully and provide insights beyond those provided by VARs.

Keywords: VARMA identification; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Bayesian; Stochastic search variable selection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Large Bayesian VARMAs (2015)
Working Paper: Large Bayesian VARMAs (2014)
Working Paper: Large Bayesian VARMAs (2014)
Working Paper: Large Bayesian VARMAs (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:econom:v:192:y:2016:i:2:p:374-390

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2016.02.005

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