How Trump triumphed: Multi-candidate primaries with buffoons

Micael Castanheira, Steffen Huck, Johannes Leutgeb and Andrew Schotter

European Economic Review, 2023, vol. 157, issue C

Abstract: While people on all sides of the political spectrum were amazed that Donald Trump won the Republican nomination this paper theorizes that Trump’s victory was not a crazy event but rather the equilibrium outcome of a multi-candidate race where one candidate, the buffoon, is viewed as likely to self-destruct and hence unworthy of attack. Our model conceptualizes primaries as a truel (a three-way duel); we solve for its equilibrium, and test its implications in a laboratory experiment. We find that people recognize a buffoon when they see one and aim their attacks elsewhere with the unfortunate consequence that the buffoon has an enhanced probability of winning. This result is strongest amongst those subjects who demonstrate an ability to best respond, suggesting that our results would only be stronger when the game is played by experts and for higher stakes.

Keywords: Truel; Political primaries; Trump (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C72 C92 D72 D74 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Working Paper: How Trump Triumphed: Multi-Candidate Primaries with Buffoons (2023)
Working Paper: How Trump triumphed: Multi-candidate primaries with buffoons (2022)
Working Paper: How Trump Triumphed:Multi-candidate Primaries with Buffoons (2020)
Working Paper: How Trump triumphed: Multi-candidate primaries with buffoons (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:157:y:2023:i:c:s0014292123001356

DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104506

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