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A new index of financial conditions

Gary Koop () and Dimitris Korobilis

European Economic Review, 2014, vol. 71, issue C, 101-116

Abstract: We use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility to construct a financial conditions index that can accurately track expectations about growth in key US macroeconomic variables. Time-variation in the models׳ parameters allows for the weights attached to each financial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for dynamic model averaging or selection which allow the financial variables entering into the financial conditions index to change over time. We discuss why such extensions of the existing literature are important and show them to be so in an empirical application involving a wide range of financial variables.

Keywords: Bayesian model averaging; Dynamic factor model; Dual Kalman filter; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C32 C52 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Related works:
Working Paper: A New Index of Financial Conditions (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: A New Index of Financial Conditions (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: A new index of financial conditions (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: A new index of financial conditions Downloads
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