Forecasting unemployment across countries: The ins and outs

Régis Barnichon and Paula Garda

European Economic Review, 2016, vol. 84, issue C, 165-183

Abstract: This paper evaluates the flow approach to unemployment forecasting proposed by Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) for a set of OECD countries characterized by very different labor markets. We find that the flow approach yields substantial improvements in forecast accuracy over professional forecasts for all countries, with especially large improvements at longer horizons (one-year ahead forecasts) for European countries. Moreover, the flow approach has the highest predictive ability during recessions and turning points, when unemployment forecasts are most valuable.

Keywords: Worker flows; Stock-flow model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E27 J6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Forecasting Unemployment across Countries: the Ins and Outs (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:84:y:2016:i:c:p:165-183

DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.10.006

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