Forecasting Unemployment across Countries: the Ins and Outs

Régis Barnichon and Paula Garda

No 10910, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: This paper evaluates the flow approach to unemployment forecasting proposed by Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) for a set of OECD countries characterized by very different labor markets. We find that the flow approach yields substantial improvements in forecast accuracy over professional forecasts for all countries, with especially large improvements at longer horizons (one-year ahead forecasts) for European countries. Moreover, the flow approach has the highest predictive ability during recessions and turning points, when unemployment forecasts are most valuable.

Keywords: Steady-state unemployment; Stock-flow model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E27 J6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-lab and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP10910 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Forecasting unemployment across countries: The ins and outs (2016)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10910

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP10910

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX, UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CEPR ().