Three different directions in which the European Union could replace Russian natural gas

Alexandros Nikas, Natasha Frilingou, Conall Heussaff, Panagiotis Fragkos, Shivika Mittal, Jon Sampedro, Sara Giarola, Jan-Philipp Sasse, Lorenzo Rinaldi, Haris Doukas, Ajay Gambhir, Anastasis Giannousakis, Nicolò Golinucci, Konstantinos Koasidis, Matteo Vincenzo Rocco, Evelina Trutnevyte, Georgios Xexakis, Georg Zachmann, Eleftheria Zisarou, Emanuela Colombo, Adam Hawkes, Brinda Yarlagadda, Matthew Binsted, Gokul Iyer, Rasmus Magni Johannsen, Jakob Zinck Thellufsen, Henrik Lund and Dirk-Jan Van de Ven

Energy, 2024, vol. 290, issue C

Abstract: Russia's invasion of Ukraine fuelled an energy crisis, which considerably impacted Europe given its heavy reliance on Russian natural gas imports. This study uses an ensemble of four global integrated assessment models, which are further soft-linked to two sectoral models, and explores the synergies and trade-offs among three approaches to living without Russian gas in Europe: (a) replacing with other gas imports, (b) boosting domestic energy production, and (c) reducing demand and accelerating energy efficiency. We find that substituting Russian gas from other trade partners would miss an opportunity to accelerate decarbonisation in end-use sectors while risking further fossil-fuel lock-ins, despite featuring the lowest gas price spikes and potentially reducing heating costs for end-users in the near term. Boosting domestic, primarily renewable, energy production on the other hand would instead require considerable investments, potentially burdening consumers. Energy demand reductions, however, could offer considerable space for further emissions cuts at the lowest power-sector investment costs; nonetheless, an energy efficiency-driven strategy would also risk relocation of energy-intensive industries, an aspect of increasing relevance to EU policymakers.

Keywords: European Union; Russia; Natural gas; Imports ban; Integrated assessment models; Model inter-comparison (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:290:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224000252

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.130254

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