Impact of oil price, economic globalization, and inflation on economic output: Evidence from Latin American oil-producing countries using the quantile-on-quantile approach

Brayan Tillaguango, Mohammad Razib Hossain, Lizeth Cuesta, Munir Ahmad, Rafael Alvarado (), Muntasir Murshed, Abdul Rehman and Cem Işık

Energy, 2024, vol. 302, issue C

Abstract: This research examines the impact of oil prices, economic globalization, and inflation on the economic output in oil-producing countries in Latin America. We employ advanced time series techniques to achieve precision in findings and reliability of policy inferences. We use cointegration techniques with and without structural breaks because oil prices are highly volatile, and the economies analyzed are unstable in the face of political and social changes. Additionally, we performed a sensitivity analysis using standard quantile and the newly developed quantile-on-quantile regressions to measure the impacts of the covariates on real per capita output. Finally, we use causality Fourier techniques to identify the direction of causal relationships between the series. We found that the oil price, economic globalization, inflation, and output have a long-term equilibrium relationship in the presence of structural breaks. Likewise, quantile models show that the impacts of inflation, economic globalization, and oil prices on economic output are extensively non-linear across the quantile distribution. We found a negative connection between inflation and economic output in the surveyed territories. We propose that those responsible for energy policy in the countries studied should rethink crude oil policies to maximize the benefits of oil exploitation under stagnant globalization and growing inflation.

Keywords: Oil price; Economic globalization; Inflation; Economic output; Latin américa; Quantile regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224015597
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:302:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224015597

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131786

Access Statistics for this article

Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser

More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().