The political effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Weimar Germany

Stefan Bauernschuster, Matthias Blum, Erik Hornung and Christoph Koenig

Explorations in Economic History, 2025, vol. 96, issue C

Abstract: How did the 1918 Influenza pandemic affect elections in Weimar Germany? We combine a panel of election results (1893–1933) with spatial heterogeneity in excess flu mortality to assess the pandemic’s effect on voting behavior across constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards leftwing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents, or political polarization are not supported by our findings.

Keywords: Pandemics; Spanish flu; Elections; Public health; Voting behavior; Issue salience; Issue ownership; Weimar Republic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 H51 I18 N34 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Related works:
Working Paper: The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany (2023)
Working Paper: The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany (2023)
Working Paper: The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany (2023)
Working Paper: The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany (2023)
Working Paper: The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:exehis:v:96:y:2025:i:c:s0014498324000743

DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101648

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