The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany

Stefan Bauernschuster, Matthias Blum, Erik Hornung and Christoph Koenig

CAGE Online Working Paper Series from Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE)

Abstract: How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893–1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic’s effect on voting behavior across German constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents for inadequate policy responses, or polarization of the electorate towards more extremist parties are not supported by our findings.

Keywords: Pandemics; Elections; Health; Voting behavior; Issue salience; Issue ownership; Weimar Republic JEL Classification: D72; I18; N34; H51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-his and nep-pol
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/c ... tions/wp666.2023.pdf

Related works:
Working Paper: The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany (2023)
Working Paper: The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany (2023)
Working Paper: The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany (2023)
Working Paper: The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cge:wacage:666

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