Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation

Michael Clements

International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, vol. 30, issue 1, 99-117

Abstract: We consider whether survey respondents’ probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.

Keywords: Subjective density forecasts; First moments; Bayesian learning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation (2012)
Working Paper: Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:30:y:2014:i:1:p:99-117

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.010

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