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Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation

Michael Clements

The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics

Abstract: We consider whether survey respondents’probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model, and whether they are well calibrated more generally. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters. Key words: probability distribution forecasts ; point forecasts ; Bayesian learning JEL classification: C53

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
Date: 2012
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Journal Article: Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation (2014) Downloads
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