Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation
No 270748, Economic Research Papers from University of Warwick - Department of Economics
We consider whether survey respondentsíprobability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model, and whether they are well calibrated more generally. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.
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Journal Article: Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation (2014)
Working Paper: Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation (2012)
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