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Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation

Michael Clements

No 270748, Economic Research Papers from University of Warwick - Department of Economics

Abstract: We consider whether survey respondentsíprobability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model, and whether they are well calibrated more generally. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.

Date: 2012-01-20
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Related works:
Journal Article: Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation (2012) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:uwarer:270748

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.270748

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