Forecasting soccer matches with betting odds: A tale of two markets

Tadgh Hegarty and Karl Whelan ()

International Journal of Forecasting, 2025, vol. 41, issue 2, 803-820

Abstract: We compare the properties of betting market odds set in two distinct markets for a large sample of European soccer matches. We confirm inefficiencies in the traditional market for bets on a home win, an away win, or a draw, as found in previous studies such as Angelini and De Angelis (2019). In particular, there is a strong pattern of favourite–longshot bias. Conversely, we document how a betting market that has emerged in recent years, the Asian handicap market, can generate efficient forecasts for the same set of matches using a new methodology for mapping its odds into probabilities.

Keywords: Sports forecasting; Betting markets; Market efficiency; Asian handicap; Soccer; Tennis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Related works:
Working Paper: Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets (2023)
Working Paper: Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:41:y:2025:i:2:p:803-820

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.06.013

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