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Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets

Karl Whelan and Tadgh Hegarty

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: We compare the properties of betting market odds set in two distinct markets for a large sample of European soccer matches. We confirm inefficiencies in the traditional market for bets on a home win, an away win or a draw as found in previous studies such as Angelini and De Angelis (2019), in particular that there is a strong pattern of favourite-longshot bias. Conversely, we document how a betting market that has emerged in recent years, the Asian handicap market, can generate efficient forecasts for the same set of matches using a new methodology for mapping its odds into probabilities.

Keywords: Sports Forecasting; Betting Markets; Market Efficiency; Asian Handicap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G14 L8 L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-02-23
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-sea and nep-spo
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Working Paper: Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets (2023) Downloads
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