Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets

Tadgh Hegarty and Karl Whelan ()

No 17949, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We compare the properties of betting market odds set in two distinct markets for a large sample of European soccer matches. We confirm inefficiencies in the traditional market for bets on a home win, an away win or a draw as found in previous studies such as Angelini and De Angelis (2019), in particular that there is a strong pattern of favourite-longshot bias. Conversely, we document how a betting market that has emerged in recent years, the Asian handicap market, can generate efficient forecasts for the same set of matches using a new methodology for mapping its odds into probabilities.

Date: 2023-03
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Journal Article: Forecasting soccer matches with betting odds: A tale of two markets (2025)
Working Paper: Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets (2023)
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