Climate variability and international migration: The importance of the agricultural linkage

Ruohong Cai, Shuaizhang Feng, Michael Oppenheimer and Mariola Pytlikova

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2016, vol. 79, issue C, 135-151

Abstract: While there is considerable interest in understanding the climate–migration relationship, particularly in the context of concerns about global climatic change, little is known about its underlying mechanisms. In the paper, we combine a rich panel data on annual bilateral international migration flows with an extensive data on climate variability across the countries to investigate in-depth the climate–migration link. We find a positive and statistically significant relationship between temperature and international outmigration only in the most agriculture-dependent countries, consistent with the widely documented adverse impact of temperature on agricultural productivity. Further, the temperature–migration relationship is nonlinear and resembles the nonlinear temperature–yield relationship. In addition, migration flows to current major destinations are especially temperature-sensitive. Policies to address issues related to climate-induced international migration would be more efficient if focused on the agriculture-dependent countries and especially people in those countries whose livelihoods depend on agriculture.

Keywords: International migration; Temperature; Agricultural productivity; Nonlinear effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 J61 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (132)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Climate Variability and International Migration: The Importance of the Agricultural Linkage (2014)
Working Paper: Climate Variability and International Migration: The Importance of the Agricultural Linkage (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:79:y:2016:i:c:p:135-151

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2016.06.005

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