Demand for dairy products in the EU

Zohra Mechemache, Vincent Réquillart, Claudio Soregaroli () and Audrey Trévisiol

Food Policy, 2008, vol. 33, issue 6, 644-656

Abstract: In the EU dairy sector, given the remaining high protective tariffs and the quota system, the main factor that drives dairy product market prices is the demand. This paper evaluates the development of demand in the EU and presents estimates of consumption trends and forecasts for the future as well as estimates of elasticity with respect to prices and income in two major EU consumer countries: France and Italy. We use two methods to estimate the development of demand for dairy products, one based on a multi-stage demand system and another based on a single trend equation. The two methods generally lead to the same qualitative results but trend projections are larger using the demand system approach which is based on a shorter data period. This difference is thus partly explained by the fact that high trend projections are not sustainable over a long period. The results show a decreasing consumption of butter and fluid milk and an overall growth in protein and fat consumption. Nevertheless, the increase in fat consumption should be more moderate than the consumption of protein. The results also show that the demand for dairy products is relatively price inelastic but is more sensitive to changes in income (especially for butter and cheese categories). As shown by the use of a partial equilibrium model of dairy markets, the likely impact of the CAP reform strongly depends on the development of demand for dairy products in the EU. More research effort on demand analysis is therefore crucial in order to assess the impact of reforms or trade negotiations more accurately and effectively.

Keywords: CAP; policy; Dairy; Consumption; trend; Elasticity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (30)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306-9192(08)00035-3
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: Demand for Dairy Products in the EU (2007)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:33:y:2008:i:6:p:644-656

Access Statistics for this article

Food Policy is currently edited by J. Kydd

More articles in Food Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().