Four types of ignorance

Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent

Journal of Monetary Economics, 2015, vol. 69, issue C, 97-113

Abstract: This paper studies alternative ways of representing uncertainty about a law of motion in a version of a classic macroeconomic targetting problem of Milton Friedman (1953). We study both “unstructured uncertainty” – ignorance of the conditional distribution of the target next period as a function of states and controls – and more “structured uncertainty” – ignorance of the probability distribution of a response coefficient in an otherwise fully trusted specification of the conditional distribution of next period׳s target. We study whether and how different uncertainties affect Friedman׳s advice to be cautious in using a quantitative model to fine tune macroeconomic outcomes.

Keywords: Risk; Uncertainty; Model misspecification; Robustness; Expected utility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:moneco:v:69:y:2015:i:c:p:97-113

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.12.008

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