Is there a real-estate bubble in the US?

Wei-Xing Zhou and Didier Sornette

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2006, vol. 361, issue 1, 297-308

Abstract: Using a methodology developed in previous papers, we analyze the quarterly average sale prices of new houses sold in the USA as a whole, in the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West of the USA, in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia of the USA, to determine whether they have grown at a faster-than-exponential rate which we take as the diagnostic of a bubble. We find that 22 states (mostly Northeast and West) exhibit clear-cut signatures of a fast-growing bubble. From the analysis of the S&P 500 Home Index, we conclude that the turning point of the bubble will probably occur around mid-2006.

Keywords: Econophysics; Real estate; Bubble; Prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (75)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US? (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:361:y:2006:i:1:p:297-308

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2005.06.098

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