Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?

Wei-Xing Zhou and Didier Sornette
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Didier Sornette: CNRS-Univ. Nice and UCLA

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Abstract: We analyze the quarterly average sale prices of new houses sold in the USA as a whole, in the northeast, midwest, south, and west of the USA, in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia of the USA, to determine whether they have grown faster-than-exponential which we take as the diagnostic of a bubble. We find that 22 states (mostly Northeast and West) exhibit clear-cut signatures of a fast growing bubble. From the analysis of the S&P 500 Home Index, we conclude that the turning point of the bubble will probably occur around mid-2006.

Date: 2005-06
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published in Physica A 361, 297-308 (2006)

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Journal Article: Is there a real-estate bubble in the US? (2006)
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