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The exposure of U.S. manufacturing industries to exchange rates

Willem Thorbecke ()

International Review of Economics & Finance, 2018, vol. 58, issue C, 538-549

Abstract: Safe asset demand and currency manipulation increase the dollar and the U.S. current account deficit. Deficits in manufacturing trade cause dislocation and generate protectionism. Dynamic OLS results indicate that U.S. export elasticities exceed unity for automobiles, toys, wood, aluminum, iron, steel, and other goods. Elasticities for U.S. imports from China are close to one or higher for footwear, radios, sports equipment, lamps, and watches and exceed 0.5 for iron, steel, aluminum, miscellaneous manufacturing, and metal tools. Elasticities for U.S. imports from other countries are large for electrothermal appliances, radios, furniture, lamps, miscellaneous manufacturing, aluminum, automobiles, plastics, and other categories. Stock returns on many of these sectors also fall when the dollar appreciates. Several manufacturing industries are thus exposed to a strong dollar. Policymakers could weaken the dollar and deflect protectionist pressure by promoting the euro, the yen, and the renminbi as alternative reserve currencies.

Keywords: Exports; Imports; Elasticities; Exchange rate exposure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F12 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Working Paper: The Exposure of U.S. Manufacturing Industries to Exchange Rates (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Exposure of U.S. Manufacturing Industries to Exchange Rates (2018) Downloads
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