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The Exposure of U.S. Manufacturing Industries to Exchange Rates

Willem Thorbecke ()

No 92a, CID Working Papers from Center for International Development at Harvard University

Abstract: Safe asset demand and currency manipulation increase the dollar and the U.S. current account deficit. Deficits in manufacturing trade cause dislocation and generate protectionism. Dynamic OLS results indicate that U.S. export elasticities exceed unity for automobiles, toys, wood, aluminum, iron, steel, and other goods. Elasticities for U.S. imports from China are close to one or higher for footwear, radios, sports equipment, lamps, and watches and exceed 0.5 for iron, steel, aluminum, miscellaneous manufacturing, and metal tools. Elasticities for U.S. imports from other countries are large for electrothermal appliances, radios, furniture, lamps, miscellaneous manufacturing, aluminum, automobiles, plastics, and other categories. For U.S. exports and especially for U.S. imports from China, trade in more sophisticated products are less sensitive to exchange rates. Stock returns on many of the sectors with high export and import elasticities also fall when the dollar appreciates. Several manufacturing industries are thus exposed to a strong dollar. Policymakers could weaken the dollar and deflect protectionist pressure by promoting the euro, the yen, and the renminbi as alternative reserve currencies.

Keywords: Exports; Imports; Elasticities; Exchange rate exposure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F12 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-opm
Date: 2018-03
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Journal Article: The exposure of U.S. manufacturing industries to exchange rates (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Exposure of U.S. Manufacturing Industries to Exchange Rates (2018) Downloads
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