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Are high-income and innovative nations resilient to the Russia-Ukraine war?

Vineeta Kumari, Majdi Hassan and Dharen Pandey

International Review of Economics & Finance, 2024, vol. 93, issue PA, 1268-1287

Abstract: Using an event study analysis on daily closing prices of 83 stock market indices from February 10, 2021 to March 14, 2022, we find that the Russia-Ukraine war negatively impacts stock returns, affecting the high-income nations the most. However, the impact varies from country to country, with some experiencing significant positive or negative abnormal returns during different event windows. Cross-sectional results indicate that the income group of nations, innovation index, net-oil exports, trade-to-GDP ratio, military expenditure, inflation, past returns, and volatility significantly impact the cumulative abnormal returns during different event windows. While countries with a higher innovation index, higher net oil exports, higher military expenditure and lower trade-to-GDP ratios experience positive returns, high-income countries experience significant negative returns. Concomitantly, higher past returns and volatility predict abnormal returns during the war.

Keywords: Russia-Ukraine conflict; Event study; Innovation; GDP; Volatility; Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reveco:v:93:y:2024:i:pa:p:1268-1287

DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.04.006

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