A Real-Time Assessment of Inflation Nowcasting at the Cleveland Fed

Edward Knotek and Saeed Zaman

Economic Commentary, 2023, vol. 2023, issue 06, 8

Abstract: Using a model based on staff research, the Cleveland Fed’s website provides daily nowcasts—or near-term predictions—of multiple US inflation measures for public use. In this Commentary, we compare the historical predictive accuracy of the model behind those inflation nowcasts with the accuracy of inflation nowcasts coming from competing sources: surveys of professional forecasters and alternative statistical models. We find that our inflation nowcasts have performed relatively well in these comparisons, both over a long sample and a short sample that focuses on the period since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: inflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedcec:95742

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DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202306

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