Forecasting inflation? Target the middle

Brent Meyer, Guhan Venkatu and Saeed Zaman

Economic Commentary, 2013, issue Apr

Abstract: The Median CPI is well-known as an accurate predictor of future infl ation. But it?s just one of many possible trimmed-mean inflation measures. Recent research compares these types of measures to see which tracks future inflation best. Not only does the Median CPI outperform other trims in predicting CPI inflation, it also does a better job of predicting PCE inflation, the FOMC?s preferred measure, than the core PCE.

Keywords: Consumer price indexes; Forecasting; Inflation (Finance) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201305 Full Text (text/html)
https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/cleve ... t-the-middle-pdf.pdf Full Text (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2013:i:apr11:n:2013-05

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Economic Commentary from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by 4D Library ().