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Is rising unemployment an early warning of state-level recession?

Alan Armen and Tyler Atkinson ()
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Alan Armen: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Economic Letter, 2016, vol. 11, issue 8, 4 pages

Abstract: Based on experience with national unemployment, analysts have viewed sharply higher state joblessness as signaling possible further deterioration. However, analyses indicate increasing state-level unemployment by itself does not indicate a recession, and that applying rule-of-thumb properties regarding recession to state economies is misguided.

Date: 2016
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