Household inflation expectations and the price of oil: it's déjà vu all over again

Bharat Trehan ()

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, issue may23

Abstract: The University of Michigan survey of consumers shows that expected inflation has moved up noticeably over the past few months, raising concerns that we may be in for a period of rising inflation. However, the increase in expected inflation likely reflects the excess sensitivity of consumers to food and energy prices. Consistent with this hypothesis, household surveys have not forecast inflation well in recent years, a period of volatile food and energy prices.

Keywords: Inflation (Finance); Petroleum products - Prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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