Using monthly data to predict quarterly output

Robert Ingenito and Bharat Trehan ()

Economic Review, 1996, 3-11

Abstract: Some time ago, the Commerce Department changed the way it calculates real gross domestic product. In response to that change, this paper presents an update of a simple model that is used to predict the growth rate of current quarter real output based on available monthly data. After searching over a set containing more than 30 different variables, we find that a model that utilized monthly data on consumption and nonfarm payroll employment to predict contemporaneous real GDP does best.

Keywords: Forecasting; Gross domestic product; Employment (Economic theory); Industrial productivity; Economic indicators; Econometric models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1996
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (35)

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