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Durability of Zambia’s Agricultural Exports

Joseph Phiri (), Karel Malec (), Majune Socrates (), Seth Nana Kwame Appiah-Kubi (), Zdeňka Gebeltová (), Sylvie Kobzev Kotásková (), Mansoor Maitah (), Kamil Maitah () and Patricia Naluwooza ()
Additional contact information
Joseph Phiri: Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 16500 Prague, Czech Republic
Karel Malec: Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 16500 Prague, Czech Republic
Zdeňka Gebeltová: Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 16500 Prague, Czech Republic
Sylvie Kobzev Kotásková: Department of Humanities, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 16500 Prague, Czech Republic
Mansoor Maitah: Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 16500 Prague, Czech Republic
Kamil Maitah: Department of Trade and Finance, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 16500 Prague, Czech Republic
Patricia Naluwooza: School of Economics, Department of Policy and Economic Development, Makerere University, Kampala P.O. Box 7062, Uganda

Agriculture, 2021, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: This paper establishes the determinants of the export durability of agriculture products in Zambia with specific attention to maize, sugar, cotton, and tobacco between 1996 and 2019. We find that approximately 39% of Zambia’s agricultural products were exported beyond the first year of trading and less than 10% lasted up to 6 years of trading. The mean and median duration of exporting agricultural products in Zambia was 1.7 years and 1 year, respectively. Among the products, maize had the highest export duration after the first year of trading, followed by sugar, tobacco, and cotton. Results of the discrete-time logit and probit models with random effects revealed that the duration of total agricultural products was significantly impacted by common colony, contiguity, partner’s gross domestic product (GDP), Zambia’s GDP, initial exports, and total exports. Of these factors, colonial history and Zambia’s GDP reduced export duration, while contiguity, partner’s GDP, initial exports, and total exports increased the durability of exports in Zambia. The effect of Zambia’s GDP was uniform across all individual agricultural products. Total exports also significantly impacted all other agriculture products in a similar manner except for maize. Export durability for cotton was significantly impacted by the Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs), while the export durability of tobacco was significantly impacted by distance, contiguity, and partner’s GDP. To increase the duration of agriculture exports, we propose the exporting of finished agriculture products (and not just raw materials), which have a higher market value and duration probability. Farmers also need support with export subsidies, increased foreign market access (especially to economies with higher buying power), and negotiated favorable trade terms in the region and around the globe.

Keywords: agriculture; export duration; export survival; discrete-time models; Zambia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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