Learning from Experience, Simply

Song Lin (), Juanjuan Zhang and John R. Hauser ()
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Song Lin: MIT Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139
John R. Hauser: MIT Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139

Marketing Science, 2015, vol. 34, issue 1, 1-19

Abstract: There is substantial academic interest in modeling consumer experiential learning. However, (approximately) optimal solutions to forward-looking experiential learning problems are complex, limiting their behavioral plausibility and empirical feasibility. We propose that consumers use cognitively simple heuristic strategies. We explore one viable heuristic—index strategies—and demonstrate that they are intuitive, tractable, and plausible. Index strategies are much simpler for consumers to use but provide close-to-optimal utility. They also avoid exponential growth in computational complexity, enabling researchers to study learning models in more complex situations.Well-defined index strategies depend on a structural property called indexability. We prove the indexability of a canonical forward-looking experiential learning model in which consumers learn brand quality while facing random utility shocks. Following an index strategy, consumers develop an index for each brand separately and choose the brand with the highest index. Using synthetic data, we demonstrate that an index strategy achieves nearly optimal utility at substantially lower computational costs. Using IRI data for diapers, we find that an index strategy performs as well as an approximately optimal solution and better than myopic learning. We extend the analysis to incorporate risk aversion, other cognitively simple heuristics, heterogeneous foresight, and an alternative specification of brands.

Keywords: forward-looking experiential learning; index strategies; structural models; cognitive simplicity; heuristics; multi-armed bandit problems; restless bandit problems; indexability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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