Overconfidence by Bayesian-Rational Agents
Eric Van den Steen
Management Science, 2011, vol. 57, issue 5, 884-896
Abstract:
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one mechanism is slightly ironic: In trying to update optimally, Bayesian agents overweight information of which they overestimate the precision and underweight in the opposite case. This causes overall an overestimation of the precision of the final estimate, which tends to increase as agents get more data. This paper was accepted by Teck Ho, decision analysis.
Keywords: overconfidence; decision analysis; risk; Bayesian updating; differing priors; heterogeneous priors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (31)
Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1110.1323 (application/pdf)
Related works:
Working Paper: Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents (2010) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:5:p:884-896
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Management Science from INFORMS Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Asher ().