Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?

Joseph Aldy

Environmental & Resource Economics, 2006, vol. 33, issue 4, 533-555

Abstract: Understanding and considering the distribution of per capita carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions is important in designing international climate change proposals and incentives for participation. I evaluate historic international emissions distributions and forecast future distributions to assess whether per capita emissions have been converging or will converge. I find evidence of convergence among 23 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), whereas emissions appear to be diverging for an 88-country global sample over 1960–2000. Forecasts based on a Markov chain transition matrix provide little evidence of future emissions convergence and indicate that emissions may diverge in the near term. I also review the shortcomings of environmental Kuznets curve regressions and structural models in characterizing future emissions distributions. Copyright Springer 2006

Keywords: emissions distributions; environmental Kuznets curve; Markov transition matrix; O40; Q54; Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (215)

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Working Paper: Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence? (2005)
Working Paper: Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence? (2005)
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DOI: 10.1007/s10640-005-6160-x

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