CPG consumption in times of recession: novel evidence from matched administrative data

Calogero Brancatelli () and Roman Inderst ()
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Calogero Brancatelli: European Central Bank
Roman Inderst: Goethe University Frankfurt

Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), 2025, vol. 23, issue 2, No 2, 265-289

Abstract: Abstract We utilize a novel dataset that merges household administrative income and socio-demographic information from tax records with scanner data on CPG consumption. Our analysis reveals significant variation in household per-capita expenditures. However, we find only a modest economic relationship between CPG spending and income, even amidst substantial within-household income fluctuations during the Dutch "double-dip recession" from 2011 to 2018. This relationship remains small for households with low income and low liquidity and holds across both food and non-food expenditures.

Keywords: Income effects; Consumer-packaged goods; Administrative data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D12 E21 E32 M30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11129-025-09296-5

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