Predicting Currency Crises: Evidence from Two Transition Economies

Costas Karfakis and Demetrios Moschos

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2004, vol. 40, issue 1, 95-103

Abstract: This paper investigates the role of fundamentals in the speculative episodes experienced by the Czech Republic and Poland during the 1990s. The evidence suggests that the currency crises of the two Central and Eastern European countries are significantly related to macroeconomic fundamentals. The analysis has implications for the design of macroeconomic policies in transition economies and for the sustainability of an exchange rate commitment.

Keywords: currency crises; probit analysis; transition economies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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