Probability Forecasts of Macroaggregates in the Turkish Economy

Huseyin Kaya and Ege Yazgan ()

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2014, vol. 50, issue 2, 214-229

Abstract: We provide probability forecasts of key Turkish macroeconomic variables such as inflation and output growth. The probability forecasts are derived from a core vector error correction model of the Turkish economy and its several variants. We use model and window averaging to address uncertainties arising from estimated models and possible structural breaks. The performances of the different models and their combinations are evaluated using relevant forecast accuracy tests in different pseudo out-of-sample settings. The results indicate that successful directional forecasts can be obtained for output growth and inflation. Averaging over both the models and the estimation windows improves the level of accuracy of the forecasts.

Keywords: forecast combinations; forecasting and structural breaks; probability forecasts; Turkish economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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