 UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United KingdomPaula Bejarano Carbo (), Hailey Low, Leaza McSorley (), Stephen Millard, Huw Dixon and Max Mosley National Institute UK Economic Outlook, 2023, issue 12, 7-40 Abstract: As we publish our Autumn Economic Outlook, the United Kingdom continues to face a challenging economic outlook as growth remains sluggish and the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) struggles to tame high inflation. We think economic activity contracted in the third quarter of 2023 and will grow only slightly in the fourth quarter. Momentum remains weak as the war in Ukraine continues and events in Israel and Gaza raise the possibility of a wider conflict in the Middle East. The labour market continues to loosen, with vacancies falling and unemployment rising, while high inactivity on account of long-term sickness remains an issue. Finally, aggressive policy rate hikes – needed to tackle high and persistent inflation – have tightened financial conditions. In a more positive development, real incomes have finally started to rise as wage inflation has overtaken price inflation. Date: 2023 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nsr:niesra:i:12:y:2023:p:7-40 Access Statistics for this article More articles in National Institute UK Economic Outlook from National Institute of Economic and Social Research 2 Dean Trench Street Smith Square London SW1P 3HE. Contact information at EDIRC. |
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