 UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United KingdomPaula Bejarano Carbo (), Hailey Low, Ben Caswell (), Stephen Millard, Huw Dixon and Max Mosley National Institute UK Economic Outlook, 2024, issue 13, 7-50 Abstract: As we publish our Winter Economic Outlook, we face the possibility that the United Kingdom was in recession at the end of 2023. Specifically, GDP fell in the third quarter of 2023 by 0.1 per cent and we expect it to have fallen by a further 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023. Regardless of whether or not fourth-quarter GDP growth was negative, the overall picture of flatlining output in the United Kingdom, which we have seen now for almost two years, continues. Momentum remains weak as the war in Ukraine continues and events in Israel and Gaza, together with the Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, raise the possibility of a wider conflict in the Middle East. The labour market continues to loosen, with vacancies falling and unemployment rising, while high inactivity on account of long-term sickness remains an issue. On the bright side, it is beginning to look like the aggressive policy rate hikes have resulted in inflation coming down towards its target and, as a result, real incomes continue to rise as wage inflation remains higher than price inflation. Date: 2024 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nsr:niesra:i:13:y:2024:p:7-50 Access Statistics for this article More articles in National Institute UK Economic Outlook from National Institute of Economic and Social Research 2 Dean Trench Street Smith Square London SW1P 3HE. Contact information at EDIRC. |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.