 UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United KingdomPaula Bejarano Carbo (), Hailey Low, Ben Caswell (), Stephen Millard, Monica George Michail and Max Mosley National Institute UK Economic Outlook, 2024, issue 14, 7-47 Abstract: As we enter 2024, it looks like the UK economy is recovering after the slight falls in GDP in the third and fourth quarters of 2023: 0.1 and 0.3 per cent, respectively. That said, the overall picture of low growth in the United Kingdom, which – barring the bounce back from the Covid-19 pandemic – we have seen for much of the past decade, continues. Momentum remains weak as the war in Ukraine continues and recent events in the Middle East have raised the possibility of a wider conflict involving Israel and Iran. The UK labour market continues to loosen, with vacancies falling and unemployment rising, while high inactivity on account of long-term sickness remains an issue. On the bright side, the aggressive policy rate hikes have resulted in inflation falling close to target (and likely below target in the second quarter of 2024) and, as a result, real incomes continue to rise as wage inflation remains higher than price inflation. Date: 2024 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nsr:niesra:i:14:y:2024:p:7-47 Access Statistics for this article More articles in National Institute UK Economic Outlook from National Institute of Economic and Social Research 2 Dean Trench Street Smith Square London SW1P 3HE. Contact information at EDIRC. |
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