Ranking Crop Yield Models Using Out-of-Sample Likelihood Functions

Bailey Norwood (), Matthew C. Roberts and Jayson Lusk

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2004, vol. 86, issue 4, 1032-1043

Abstract: There has been considerable debate regarding which probability distribution best represents crop yields. This study ranks six yield densities based on their out-of-sample forecasting performance. The forecasting ability for each density was ranked according to its likelihood function value when observed at out-of-sample observations. Results show that a semiparametric model offered by Goodwin and Ker best forecasts county average yields. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.

Date: 2004
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:86:y:2004:i:4:p:1032-1043

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