Short-term price density forecasts in the lean hog futures market

Andres Trujillo-Barrera, Philip Garcia and Mindy Mallory ()

European Review of Agricultural Economics, 2018, vol. 45, issue 1, 121-142

Abstract: We estimate and evaluate ex-ante density forecasts of lean hog futures prices using two approaches: forward-looking techniques using options market data and time series models. Our findings indicate that risk-neutral and risk-adjusted forward-looking market techniques are better calibrated and have superior predictive accuracy than time series GARCH models based on historical data. Improvements to goodness of fit and accuracy of the forecasts obtained by the calibration from risk-neutral to real-world densities imply that short-term risk premiums may be present in the lean hog futures markets, and they most likely appear in periods of market turmoil.

Keywords: density forecast; commodities; price analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/erae/jbx026 (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:erevae:v:45:y:2018:i:1:p:121-142.

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://academic.oup.com/journals

Access Statistics for this article

European Review of Agricultural Economics is currently edited by Timothy Richards, Salvatore Di Falco, Céline Nauges and Vincenzina Caputo

More articles in European Review of Agricultural Economics from Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Oxford University Press ().