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Unemployment Persistence

Wiji Arulampalam (), Alison Booth () and Mark Taylor ()

Oxford Economic Papers, 2000, vol. 52, issue 1, 24-50

Abstract: We estimate dynamic panel data models of unemployment incidence for men using the British Household Panel Survey. Econometric issues concerning unobserved individual heterogeneity, genuine state dependence, and the initial conditions problems are addressed in detail. We find strong evidence of state dependence consistent with the scarring theory of unemployment--an individual's previous unemployment experience has implications for his future labour market experience. This suggests that policies reducing short run employment incidence will have longer-run effects by reducing the equilibrium or natural rate of unemployment. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

Date: 2000
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